<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By Igor Andrade and Fernanda Arbex, partners at Innova Public Affairs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n The year 2026 will once again be decisive for Brazil\u2019s political and institutional trajectory. With general elections scheduled, the country will choose the President of the Republic, state governors, senators, federal deputies, and state legislators. The electoral calendar imposes its own dynamics on both the Legislative and Executive branches, marked by growing polarization, political realignments, and intermittent legislative agendas\u2014alternating periods of low productivity with weeks of concentrated effort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the center of the race will be the presidential election. President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva currently appears as the frontrunner for reelection, anchored by the strength of his nationwide presence and the recent recovery of his popularity, according to several polling institutes. The opposition, meanwhile, remains fragmented. Former President Jair Bolsonaro continues to mobilize a significant voter base, but his ineligibility complicates efforts to organize a unifying candidacy within the conservative camp, and his endorsement of Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro as a candidate is not unanimous on the right. The election is therefore likely to preserve the central feature of Brazilian politics in recent years: polarization as the dominant structure, even if under new forms, in a contest that remains open to both sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Another key point of attention will be the race for seats in the Federal Senate. Two-thirds of the chamber will be up for election, and the contest is expected to gain prominence due to the government\u2019s strategy of fielding several sitting ministers as candidates. At least 20 members of the Esplanada are reportedly considering runs for elected office, with a particular focus on Senate seats. The strategy aims to expand the government\u2019s support base in Congress starting in 2027, a move that also mobilizes the opposition, which views the Senate as a priority institutional arena to contain or redirect agendas from the Executive and the Judiciary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Chamber of Deputies and state legislative assemblies will also undergo renewal. In the National Congress, 2026 is expected to be a year of staggered operations. The legislative agenda will likely be organized around weeks of concentrated effort, focused on voting on matters previously negotiated by party leaders. In this context, issues with broader political consensus are more likely to advance, while more sensitive topics may be postponed or negotiated at a slower pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Among the issues most likely to gain prominence are the proposed constitutional amendment on public security, the bill addressing the fight against criminal organizations, the regulation of artificial intelligence, and the proposal for a differentiated tax regime for data centers\u2014an issue that has mobilized sectors linked to digital infrastructure and the innovation economy. In the Senate, the confirmation hearing of Jorge Messias for the Supreme Federal Court may also enter the agenda, although the process still depends on political coordination to move forward, following initial resistance to his nomination from Senate leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The political environment in 2026 will therefore be marked by a combination of intense competition and strategic negotiations. On one hand, the Executive will seek to preserve political capital and expand its legislative base. On the other, Congress will operate with an eye on the electoral calendar, which poses challenges to the approval of structural reforms. For the productive sector, it will be a year requiring heightened attention: while electoral cycles bring uncertainty, they also open space for repositioning and medium-term opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This text does not necessarily reflect the views of the CCBC and is the sole responsibility of the author who signs this content.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" By Igor Andrade and Fernanda Arbex, partners at Innova Public Affairs<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":55,"featured_media":74843,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"off","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"1080","footnotes":""},"categories":[118],"tags":[555,215,125,1032,229,1965,584,1627,209,227],"class_list":["post-74865","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-artigos-ccbc-en","tag-brazil-canada","tag-business","tag-canada-en","tag-canada-day-en","tag-ccbc-en","tag-ccbc-50-anos-en","tag-comex-en","tag-educacao-2-en","tag-innovation","tag-tecnologia-en"],"cp_meta_data":{"_wpml_word_count":["{\"total\":645,\"to_translate\":{\"fr\":645,\"pt-br\":645}}"],"_wp_old_date":["2025-04-26"],"_et_pb_use_builder":["off"],"_et_pb_old_content":[""],"_et_gb_content_width":["1080"],"footnotes":[""],"_et_monarch_override":[""],"sb_djhf_disable":["0"],"_et_post_bg_color":["#ffffff"],"_et_post_bg_layout":["light"],"_et_pb_show_title":["on"],"_et_pb_post_hide_nav":["default"],"_et_pb_page_layout":["et_no_sidebar"],"_et_pb_side_nav":["off"],"_wpml_media_duplicate":["1"],"_wpml_media_featured":["1"],"_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":["53"],"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":["Reforma Tribut\u00e1ria"],"_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":["Evento do Chapter MG reuniu empresas de minera\u00e7\u00e3o e do agroneg\u00f3cio para avaliar impactos nos neg\u00f3cios com o novo sistema em discuss\u00e3o no Congresso"],"_yoast_wpseo_linkdex":["56"],"_yoast_wpseo_content_score":["30"],"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":["5"],"_et_builder_dynamic_assets_loading_attr_threshold":["2"],"_wpml_location_migration_done":["1"],"_thumbnail_id":["74843"],"_edit_lock":["1769531350:55"],"_edit_last":["55"],"_encloseme":["1"]},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ccbc.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74865","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ccbc.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ccbc.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccbc.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/55"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccbc.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74865"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccbc.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74865\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":74866,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccbc.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74865\/revisions\/74866"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccbc.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74843"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ccbc.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74865"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccbc.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74865"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ccbc.org.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74865"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}